AI Concept Drift and the Business/Ecosystem Lakes of Regression

While reading the ISTQB-CTAI (Artificial Intelligence) syllabus, I came across the following text for **Concept Drift**:

“The operational environment can change over time without the trained model changing correspondingly. This phenomenon is known as concept drift and typically causes the outputs of the model to become increasingly less accurate and less useful. For example, the impact of marketing campaigns may result in a change in the behavior of potential customers over a period of time. Such changes could be seasonal or abrupt changes due to cultural, moral or societal changes which are external to the system. An example of such an abrupt change is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on the accuracy of the models used for sales projections and stock markets.”

In my own work, where I’ve documented The 3-Lakes Model of Regression, a concept drift is a regression in the Business or Ecosystem lakes.



I am happy when my open-ended, technology-agnostic models, with basic, core vocabulary are able to map to new concepts and vocabulary that come my way.

My model is not specific to AI at all. Despite that, the above 2 examples of Concept Drift are explained in even finer manner by the 3-Lake Model, based on the already familiar concept of a regression:

1. The marketing example: Business Lake Regression
2. The COVID example: The Ecosystem Lake Regression

PS: The syllabus is a very good reading for testers interested in Artificial Intelligence. Recommended.


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